Transaction log #1

  • May 16, 2022 - Bought 5 @ $142.20 (0.45% wtg, opportunistic)

  • Feb 9, 2023 - Sold 5 @ $201.20 (closed, 0% wtg)

Performance

  • Total return = +41.49%

  • Coffee Can contribution = +0.30%

Transaction log #2

  • May 2, 2024 - Bought 6 @ $143.02 (0.49% wtg, opportunistic)

  • May 28, 2024 - Bought 4 @ $133.30 (0.73% wtg)

  • Jul 19, 2024 - Bought 10 @ $74.14 (0.81% wtg)

  • Feb 17, 2026 - Sold 5 @ $206.97 (1.10% wtg)

Five Below

Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

 

Profile

Industry: Specialty retail

Sector: Consumer discretionary

Theme: Middle class squeezed

5-Year shareholder growth: +22.4%/year

Estimated fair value: $155

Assumption: 5.5% MFCF yield

Insider ownership: 1.9%

Investors: John Zolidis (Quo Vadis Capital)

Estimated fair value history

  • Jan-25 - $125 (5.5% MFCF yield)

  • Apr-25 - $130

  • Jul-25 - $146

  • Oct-25 - $155

History
Recession ahead
Recession ahead

Good time to stress test the portfolio… [trades]

Doubling down on Five Below after CEO Joel Anderson exits
Doubling down on Five Below after CEO Joel Anderson exits

Bad news: CEO Joel Anderson has left Five Below for greener pastures. Good news: the stock tanked 27% on the news. Time to buy. [trade]

What’s going on with Five Below?
What’s going on with Five Below?

Five Below is down 30% from where I recommended it in early May… buy, sell or hold? [mailbag]

Trimming ASA and replacing with Alamos Gold
Trimming ASA and replacing with Alamos Gold

Trimming ASA, adding to Alamos Gold and Five Below. With bullish sentiment extreme, time to add a little portfolio insurance. [trades]

Buying back Five Below, update on ASA proxy vote
Buying back Five Below, update on ASA proxy vote

Since recommending Five Below two years ago (and selling 9 months later at a 41% profit), the stock is right back where it started even though the company has grown 25%. Time to buy. [trade]

Market timers are bullish, time to raise cash
Market timers are bullish, time to raise cash

While this is a high quality retailer with a long runway for growth, Five Below has become a pricey stock since our purchase last May at 142.20. [trade]

Buying 8 new stocks with a growth emphasis
Buying 8 new stocks with a growth emphasis

Negatives: recession on the way, big tech stocks still not cheap. Positives: bearish sentiment, lots of selling pressure below the surface. How these countervailing forces resolve themselves is an open question, but many high quality growth stocks are reasonably priced. [trades]