Transaction log

  • Mar 9, 2021 - Bought 50 @ $17.98 (0.64% wtg, opportunistic)

  • Dec 6, 2021 - Bought 50 @ $16.82 (100 shares, 1.17% wtg)

  • Dec 28, 2022 - Bought 50 @ $8.85 (150 shares, 0.86% wtg)

Smith & Wesson Brands

Location: Maryville, Tennessee

 

Profile

Industry: Aerospace & defense

Sector: Industrial goods

Theme: Private defense

5-Year gross profit growth: -21.5%/year

5-Year shareholder growth: -16.4%/year

Fair value estimate: $14.01

Valuation assumption: 1.0 x 5-year average annual revenue

Operating income/gross profit: 20.7%

Insider ownership: 1.59%

Fair value estimate history

  • Jan-24 - $16.29 (1.0 x 5-year avg annual revenue)

  • Apr-24 - $16.07

  • Jul-24 - $16.02

  • Oct-24 - $15.98

  • Jan-25 - $15.92

  • Apr-25 - $15.48

  • Jul-25 - $15.10

  • Oct-25 - $14.55

  • Jan-26 - $14.06

  • Apr-26 - $14.01

History
Smith & Wesson reports Q3 results, beats low bar
Smith & Wesson reports Q3 results, beats low bar

The time to buy cyclicals is at the bottom of the cycle. Are we there yet with gun stocks?

Smith & Wesson: Review of “disappointing” Q2 results
Smith & Wesson: Review of “disappointing” Q2 results

As with all cyclical stocks, best to buy when business is down and profits dry up. None of what I heard on the SWBI earnings call was all that surprising.

Year-end tax loss selling = time to go dumpster diving
Year-end tax loss selling = time to go dumpster diving

Irrational selling often makes for bargains, which is why I like to search for beaten-down stocks at year-end. Thanks to the bear market in 2022, there is plenty to choose from. [trades]

Adding to Smith & Wesson on earnings selloff
Adding to Smith & Wesson on earnings selloff

Smith & Wesson tanked 29% after reported strong (but lower than expected) earnings. Time to buy more. [trade]

Trimming American Eagle, buying Smith & Wesson, shorting high yield bonds
Trimming American Eagle, buying Smith & Wesson, shorting high yield bonds

High yield bonds yield just 4.52%, or less than 3% above 10-year Treasuries. That spread has ranged from 2.5% to 20% over the past 20 years. At these levels, high yield bonds are priced for nirvana. [trades]