Transaction log
Mar 9, 2021 - Bought 50 @ $17.98 (0.64% wtg, opportunistic)
Dec 6, 2021 - Bought 50 @ $16.82 (100 shares, 1.17% wtg)
Dec 28, 2022 - Bought 50 @ $8.85 (150 shares, 0.86% wtg)
Location: Maryville, Tennessee
Profile
Industry: Aerospace & defense
Sector: Industrial goods
Theme: Migration trends
5-Year shareholder growth: -1.6%/year
Fair value estimate: $12
Valuation assumption: 8.0% MFCF yield
The time to buy cyclicals is at the bottom of the cycle. Are we there yet with gun stocks?
As with all cyclical stocks, best to buy when business is down and profits dry up. None of what I heard on the SWBI earnings call was all that surprising.
Irrational selling often makes for bargains, which is why I like to search for beaten-down stocks at year-end. Thanks to the bear market in 2022, there is plenty to choose from. [trades]
Smith & Wesson tanked 29% after reported strong (but lower than expected) earnings. Time to buy more. [trade]
High yield bonds yield just 4.52%, or less than 3% above 10-year Treasuries. That spread has ranged from 2.5% to 20% over the past 20 years. At these levels, high yield bonds are priced for nirvana. [trades]
